FORECASTING

First the Company does an anual sales forescating, because it needs to evaluate its budget. For this, the company does the next procedure:

SIMULATON FORECAST

Idea: Creation of an events company, sales forecast

Main Business Area: Logistics

Seven steps to make a forecasting system:

1.       Uses: to project the demand of the company and its sales

2.       Items: Demand, Time and prices.

3.       Time horizont: Five years

4.       Model: Least Squares

5.       Data gathering: the data to be considered are:

First, to find the equation according to the model used, data is taken from projects of a similar nature, where the data is extracted and adjusted to meet the conditions of the project and the environment. As the second part, a market study be conducted on a small sample, these data will be used for the analysis of demand forecasting and sales.

6.       Making:

For the sales forecast it was estimated that for the first year (initial); demand will be 85 companies, that due to the creaciente demand in the city of Bucaramanga and besides that the company is new. The number of customers increased every year by 25% (on the time horizon: 5 years).

The value of the service will initially be $ 2,500,000 for an event for 40-50 persons with complete general service, value will increase by 10% each year.

These customers projection calculations are based on market studies previously conducted on projects of a similar nature.

7.       Validation and implementation

It will use the method of least squares:

This are de data: (based on previous studies).

The equation is:

Y= 28.6 x +50.4

Being,

X = year

Y= Number or client companies

This equation will be the model to prognosticate the demand in the proyect of creation of logistics events company.